Terrific, (insert sarcasm.)

After a terrifically busy first six days of the month, I had a terrifically crappy next 6 days of the month (literally dropped in half in sales), for a terrifically average 12 day total. Still on track for my 'middle' case scenario, but can't help but be a little disappointed.

Blaming weather is lame -- weather always happens. Still, the last few days have been pretty barren once the storms started. Looking at the forecast, seems these storms are still a'comin'.

Oh, well. I've become reconciled to summer business not really starting until the second half of June. They keep the kids in school until pretty late, followed by what I think of as a transition week, where schedules change, camps get started, activities are begun, kids are traded amongst the families.

So, with any luck, the weather will turn more summery just as the new routines are established.

Meanwhile, I've apologized to my UPS guy for the huge loads of products that will be coming in. Told him he might want to take his vacation. I'll be busy for the next few weeks just trying to make room for everything. It's lots of fun -- kind of like a birthday party -- opening up the boxes and seeing what I got.

Then I'll be into July. Like I aways say about Christmas, they haven't yet canceled it. Nor have they ever canceled summer. There will be an increase in business, even if it's down from last year.

I can't help my optimistic streak. I always think the worst is over, that we're going to turn the corner, we're on our way. But reality and logic tell me different. I'm sticking to my prediction that -- even when the rest of the country starts to recover -- Bend is going to be stuck for a couple more years.

Off to the races...

This blog is going to become a bit of a horse race for the next 3 to 7 months, because that's where my focus is going to be.

Housing? Boring. Haven't read the Housing Bubble Blog for months.

The discussion has turned to the economy (and other equally disgusting things) over on BB2, which is all right by me. Despite all predictions of boarded up buildings downtown, new businesses keep opening. But as I said yesterday, this isn't so much a predictor of success as an indication that people are still willing to take a chance.

My two little stock picks, (2000.00 invested in each, Eaton Vance and Evergreen Global,) have increased by about 30%. I'm not sure this means my portfolio has gone up the same, but it's fun to watch anyway. You can see why stock picking could become addictive. Going to plop a big 5000.00 more into them by the end of summer.

Anyway, my main focus will be to stick to my budget, come hell or high water. Sales I can't really control, since I'm unwilling to discount to bump them up, or spend more than maintenance money on inventory.

But summer usually takes care of that. Tourists come. Christmas takes care of that, despite the Sheriff of Nottingham's threats to "Cancel Christmas!" People still buy gifts.

Buying I can control. The budget will be tight. I'm not sure it's completely possible with this tight budget to get absolutely everything that sells. My standards for what I consider an Evergreen will probably have to be raised.

I'm not sure about that. If enough of the 'liquidation' product I buy sells, it might be possible to keep tooling along.

Either way, the budget is written in stone this time.

May was my best month of the year, so far. Running about 12% above the average of the previous 4 months. We're down about 20% overall for the year, which is the least amount I expected it to fall. We should start lapping last years dramatic declines in September. (Last fall was Armageddon for retail.) There has been a small but noticeable increase each month this year.

COMICS: Down about 15%. Lost a whole bunch of subscribers, but seemed to do all right with the off the counter sales. Off the counter sales are preferable in some ways. I'm not in a hurry to talk customers into signing for a shelf, and thus getting an automatic 10% off. Nor to tie up my cash flow for weeks and sometimes months.

ANIME: Up 25%. Numbers are so small in this category, not sure it's significant except to show there is still some life in it.

SPORTS CARDS: Down 80%. Simply had no box buyers in this category. I can carry it, though, for awhile.

CARD GAMES: Down 45%. A lot of my magic customers disappeared. I've decided not to get too upset about it, just order more moderate quantities. But I take note of the fickleness of this category.

BOARDGAMES AND RPGs: Up 20%. It's fun when a category starts to respond to tender loving care. I'm liking my selection of games, right now.

BOOKS: Down 15%, but still very strong. Last year I was throwing money at books, this year I was more maintaining them. The number is a very strong number. Between books and games, they represent 27% of sales. These are two categories that barely existed in my store 3 years ago, so I shudder to think what sales would've been like without them!

TOYS: Down 33%. Another fickle number, and not necessarily indicative of the strength of the category. Next month could be 3 times more, and so on....

GRAPHIC NOVELS: Down 6%. Basically even. Again, these are mostly off the counter sales, thus I get full price. Like boardgames, this category has lots of juicy product to sell and reorder.

Like I said, I'm pleased with these numbers. The categories that are low, I can respond by keeping just enough flow of new stuff to keep them interesting but not lose money. For the categories that are doing well, I'm not in the expanding phase but just keeping them humming along.

Off to the races....

Yeah, it's summer!

I'm calling it. This weekend is the start of the real summer season.

**********

All right, Bulletin.

So home prices down just 2% for the quarter. That's the spring quarter, folks. After a dire winter quarter.

Year to year is what counts. -14.56.

Elsewhere in the paper; "Short sale, auctions are dragging down property appraisals."

"...more than 75% of single-family home sales during a recent 30-day period were either short sales or purchased at a foreclosure auction."

I would hate to have to try to sell my house, right about now. Or to try to refinance.

**********

So we enter into the critical Summer business period with all the pieces in place.

Most of the liquidated stores are nearing the end. We have at least 4 new restaurants openings, all planned in the relatively rosy third quarter of last year. It's a strange thing, because the garage has been almost empty every night, including Friday's and Saturday's, and now there are 4 new and relatively large establishments opening.

Anyway.

Now we sit back and see if the tourists show up, and if they show up, whether they spend money.

I'm optimistic. Just reading the tea leaves. Talking to people. But I have no real way of knowing.

My budget for the next 7 months is pretty much set, and I can't imagine what would change my mind. I see no new fads coming along that I'd have to stock up on. The store is fully stocked in every section; like I've been saying recently, that has almost never happened.

And I'm pretty pleased with how it's all selling.

If summer is down the same 20% from last year as the rest of this year has been -- and if I stick to my budget -- it could be a very profitable summer.

I'm going to go ahead and call this weekend the start of summer -- though the local kids don't get out until mid-June, it's the tourists who are going to make this summer profitable....or not.