Update. Downtown openings and closings.

I wanted to get confirmation on Chocolate e Gateaux before I posted this.

Finders Keepers I had on this list before, because their windows were plastered wit FOR SALE signs, but I never saw a Going Out Of Business Sign until this week.

Northwest Home Interiors is in the Mountain Comfort space.

A couple of the For Lease signs on my block have actually stayed up for almost a month, which has been unusual.

On the corner of the Franklin Crossing Building, a sign in the window, "Opening Soon; Singing Sparrow Flowers."

Keep me up to date, folks. If you have any confirmation, let me know. Again, the dates are when I feel I have confirmation, not when they actually open or close.

NEW BUSINESS'S DOWNTOWN

Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails



BUSINESS'S LEAVING

Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
**Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)**
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
**Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09**
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
**King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
**Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro

Bend, Ore. Poster Child.

Ready or not, I think Bend is going to become the poster child of excess to the mainstream media.

I suspect that the New York Times article on Bend is only the beginning. For one thing, as the rest of the country is trying to crawl their way out of the hole, Bend will still be digging. As much of the country lies panting in the mud, Bend will be still be slinging dirt.

Like it or not, we're it.

It was interesting to look up "Poverty with a View" in the Urban Dictionary and find that it is applied specifically to Bend. I sort of thought every resort community had that saying.

We'll be in the top ten lists for a long time. Over priced, under employed, and out of luck.

The rest of the country needs someplace that was worse than themselves. They need someone to wag their fingers at. Wow, we have it bad, but at least we're not Detroit or Bend, Oregon!!

Bend has beautiful surroundings, they'll say, but look what they did to themselves. It's a shame.

Our very picturesque-ness is going to be what puts us on the poster. Look! they'll say. See what happens when you build too much. When you drive too much. When you think you're special. When you don't create jobs!

Media will shake their collective heads. Sad, isn't it?

Whatever you do, don't get Bendized. (Damn Californians, mutter, mutter....well, you know how the rest of the country shakes their head about THOSE people.)

Just saying, be prepared to be kicked around for awhile. You'll get concerned calls from relatives. "Are you O.K.? We hear Bend is a ghost town!"

It's not so bad, we'll protest. Really.

But it's too late. We're on that poster.

Back in my accustomed spot.

Whew.

I was getting worried. It seemed there for awhile that everyone was as negative or even more negative than I was about the business climate in Bend. I've talked to out-of-towners who seemed to believe that downtown Bend is desolate, boarded up. And, of course, it's amazingly busy with new stores popping up everywhere. (How everyone is actually doing -- as I always point out -- may be something else entirely.) Stores keep a'comin'.

But, now, with the seasonal uptick, that has changed. People are getting all excited like, and thinking we're back! I find myself once again -- I won't say more negative, I'll say -- less positive than most people I talk to. That makes me feel a little more secure, somehow.

I think we're still in the slobbering, muggy, muddling part of the low middle range. (Sorry to use so many technical terms.) For instance, June has shown no real strength, and it's almost over. Even if July and August pick up, we're already too far in to make up for it.

So...after that, we're into the Fall season, then Christmas, then the long slow slog to summer, again.

Foreclosure and short sales, all around. I was talking to a developer who said that all those bids for short sale houses are for show. That the people making the bids are more or less being strung along, so that the bank can establish a low value and take back the house themselves.

Which goes along with what I've read nationally that the banks don't actually want to relinquish their 'toxic' assets, because they still think they can make money from them.

All they have to do is wait it out. Not make any loans and stay solvent.

Not sure that was the intention of the 'bail-out.'

Positive attitude can only take us so far. If real time foreclosures and alt-loan adjustments are there to hammer us down again. No building, to speak of. It is pretty much survival time. Breaking even will be an achievement.

A few small trends, I don't know how significant they are. It's anecdotal, and I just believe it's happening but can't prove it.

The first trend actually is documented, but I don't know how long running it will be.

1.) Lots of people and lots of small sales. But not very many big sales. I'm not seeing what I would consider the "Hey, we're on vacation, let's buy it" crowd yet. It's still early and they may show up.

2.) More cash transactions. Seems like people aren't whipping out their card quite as much. I noticed on one day that I didn't get a single purchase with a card until late in the afternoon. But that may have been a fluke.

3.) People coming into the store who are telling me that they are either moved to Bend, or are planning to move to Bend. Some have even bought a house. Then again, if someone has left town, I guess they wouldn't be around to tell me. I saw the biggest exodus over the winter, and the shelves seem to have stabilized.

4.) People seem to think the economy is getting better. I don't think it is, other than seasonal variation. I think what we're seeing right now is what we'll see for at least one more year, and probably two. Sure, the severe decline has slowed, but I think 'green shoots' is overstating it.

5.) Nevertheless, the middle management people, the people between the actual small business, and the media on either end, seem to think things are getting better. They even reassure me it's getting better. Why? Because the media is saying it, and because their clients -- the stores -- aren't telling them it's Armageddon anymore. But....stasis is not exactly the same thing as 'turning around.'

Like I said, I think we're in the great muddy muddle middle.

We should be fine around the year 2014.

I've taken to posting the Central Oregon building permits every time the Bulletin has them, because this, to me, is one of the most important statistics out there. It shows a 53% decline from last year, and so far this year, a 59% percent decline. This .... going into the heart of the building season.

Bend went from 22 permits to 17, which is basically the difference between awful and terrible, or something. Both numbers reflect a stagnant building economy.

**********

Meanwhile, McClatchy Online has another one of those great interactive maps that projects that Central Oregon won't return to 'prerecession' employment levels until 2014. Five years from now.

It also arrives at a figure of 13,500 unemployed persons in Bend with the 15.6 unemployment rate. (In addition to all the contract workers in Bend which is probably higher than most places.)

**********

BB2 picked up on Bob Thomas's comment that "Bend is in a Depression." When Paul-doh said a couple days ago, he had picked up his headline from Thomas's testimony, I looked for likely phrases and came up with these:

"There was confusion as to why Bend...will be abandoned...."

"Now it is a dark time...."

"After the hearing, Thomas...(was asked)...if he wanted to meet GM CEO Henderson."

"Why would I want to do that?"

Heh. Why, indeed.

**********

I don't normally comment on other stores by name, but the Bulletin has a John Stearns column about a couple of new or expanding furniture stores in Bend. The column points out that 7 furniture stores have closed or are closing.

In essence, both of these owners are certain that they will do well when everyone else is struggling. Both point to the 'high-end' niche.

I hope they're right. I certainly understand the need to push forward, because I often feel compelled to do the same. Not going down quietly, but actually upping the ante is sometimes the right thing to do.

So I'll just remind you of the information above:

17 building permits in Bend in May.

"Bend is in a Depression!"

13,500 unemployed, 15.6% unemployment, projected 2014 recovery.

7 furniture stores closing.

If ever there was a time to hunker down....

**********

Finally, a little shout out to H.Bruce Miller. I hope you're on vacation and enjoying yourself. I've been missing your contributions to Wandering Eye and your comments on the other blogs.

Um...where are you?

Two new stores downtown.

Seemingly overnight, a couple new businesses are situating within a hundred yards of my store.

After watching UP, (the movie made me tear up twice, and had me belly laughing at the Alpha Dog's voice) Sunday night, I popped my head in the door where they were repainting the Treefort space. If I got this right, it's a spin off of Angel Kisses, and will be called Honey, subtitled A Better Alteration. Basically, an alterations and clothing store.

They asked me, "How's the foot traffic?" Which seems to me the right question. I told them I thought it was as good as any place in town.

While I was talking to the Honey people, I looked over and saw Azura Studio, on Bond next to Luxe, a new salon. I mean, it seems to have popped up overnight.

Pretty amazing that people just keepa comin'.

I see this as a good thing for my store. My lease is done, so any downturn won't help in negotiations -- which would've been a pretty stupid thing to wish for in any event.

Empty spaces aren't healthy, but most are being leased before the old stores even leave. When the Oxford Hotel opens, I believe we're going to have a great flow of foot traffic.

Except for the spaces where the Olive store and the old location to LuLu's, most of my street has filled up. Wonder what will go into the Luxe space? In my daydreams, I win the lottery, and turn it into the showspace bookstore.

Even in the midst of a slowdown, I seemed to have lucked out in my location. The neighborhood around it has changed constantly for the better.

I've included the Comings and Goings list, again. The Comings list is started to get closer in size to the Goings list, so a kind of equilibrium is taking place.

The dates are turning out a little strange, because I include them when I hear confirmation of their coming or going, not when they actually come or go (because I can't be sure I'll catch that.) So we have Comings like High Desert Gallery, which won't actually open until the Oxford Hotel opens, and so on.

Still, the dates are going to prove really useful information in the long run, to someone. Seems no one really keeps this kind of information.

P.S. Someone mentioned Periwinkle closing. To be honest, I didn't know they were still around. Does anyone know about this?

NEW BUSINESS'S DOWNTOWN

Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Recession Pies 4/11/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails



BUSINESS'S LEAVING

Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
Pomegranate (downtown branch)
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro

Comings and Goings update.

Got to work today, and there are big "Going Out of Business Signs" in the Luxe Home Interior's store.

I have theory. The second incarnation of any business will have less of a chance of surviving long term than the first incarnation.

The first incarnation is usually someone's dream. They put everything into it. The fixtures, the product, the attitude is as fresh as it will ever be.

The second incarnation is usually trying to pick up the pieces. Sure, they may have gotten into the same situation for less money, but....

1.) They have the evidence in front of them that the first incarnation, for all its loving care and energy and its new product and its New Kid in Town mystique didn't make it.

2.) They have the same hurdles of learning the business that everyone has, without the new business excitement.

3.) Picking up a store because it's available is very different in motivation from starting a business from scratch.

Of course, I have my own business to contradict that. I'd managed the store for a couple of years before I bought it, the absentee owner had really neglected it, and I brought a big sense of Newness in my attitude right from the start. But still, I was the second incarnation. It's more than possible that the management of 900 Wall is bringing the same virtues to their business, for instance.

P.S. Luxe has the distinction of being the first store both on the New business section and the goings section.


NEW BUSINESS'S DOWNTOWN

Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Recession Pies 4/11/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails



BUSINESS'S LEAVING

Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
Pomegranate (downtown branch)
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro

Yeah, it's summer!

I'm calling it. This weekend is the start of the real summer season.

**********

All right, Bulletin.

So home prices down just 2% for the quarter. That's the spring quarter, folks. After a dire winter quarter.

Year to year is what counts. -14.56.

Elsewhere in the paper; "Short sale, auctions are dragging down property appraisals."

"...more than 75% of single-family home sales during a recent 30-day period were either short sales or purchased at a foreclosure auction."

I would hate to have to try to sell my house, right about now. Or to try to refinance.

**********

So we enter into the critical Summer business period with all the pieces in place.

Most of the liquidated stores are nearing the end. We have at least 4 new restaurants openings, all planned in the relatively rosy third quarter of last year. It's a strange thing, because the garage has been almost empty every night, including Friday's and Saturday's, and now there are 4 new and relatively large establishments opening.

Anyway.

Now we sit back and see if the tourists show up, and if they show up, whether they spend money.

I'm optimistic. Just reading the tea leaves. Talking to people. But I have no real way of knowing.

My budget for the next 7 months is pretty much set, and I can't imagine what would change my mind. I see no new fads coming along that I'd have to stock up on. The store is fully stocked in every section; like I've been saying recently, that has almost never happened.

And I'm pretty pleased with how it's all selling.

If summer is down the same 20% from last year as the rest of this year has been -- and if I stick to my budget -- it could be a very profitable summer.

I'm going to go ahead and call this weekend the start of summer -- though the local kids don't get out until mid-June, it's the tourists who are going to make this summer profitable....or not.

The Bulletin gets mostly real.

When the Bulletin does one of its surveys of the local economy, I usually find myself taking a counter-view. This time around, it's more like nit-picking.

In fact, it's almost like I'm reading something that I or one of the other bubble bloggers wrote a year or two ago.

**********

But first, I can't help commenting on the other business page article: "Teeny Big-Box Stores."

That sounds familiar. I think we used to have a name for that. Oh, yeah. We called them "stores."

**********

Back to the "Warning of a slow recovery here."

Well, exactly.

My two quibbles.

Quibble One: it's seems unlikely to me that we are suddenly going to get an influx of new firms relocating because "you have lower land prices...Employees can afford to buy a house. Companies can buy property for plant expansion."

Seems to me that the national economy, the Oregon economy, and the long lead time of 'relocating' will preclude much of that happening in the next couple of years, which is the time-line most of us are thinking about.

Several years down the road? Anything is possible.

Quibble Two: Going from 89 homes sold in March to 105 in April is hardly what I would term a "surge." Indeed, seems more like a seasonal uptick. And it represents houses where the original owners lost their shirts, mostly.

The rest of the article -- and most especially the graphs -- speak for themselves.

This year is pretty much toast. I figure the 8 building permits issued in April (which could represent a garage expansion, a new deck, anything that requires a permit) represent summer building. In other words, there isn't any.

There is an overlay of very, very high end homes being built here and there, because I have customers who are working on them. But they don't represent the local economy except in the most trickle down of ways.

Mostly, it's whatever is happening now is going to happen for the rest of the year, allowing for seasonal adjustments. My guess right now is that next year will be very similar.

Bend, California

I feel as though there was an attempt to glamorize little old Bend, Oregon. To Hollywoodize it, Aspenize it, Malibuize it. And yet, that very notion seems antithetical to what most people moved here for in the first place. It was the down-to-earth, friendly nature of Bend that attracted people originally.

Not glitz and glam.

I can assure you that the group of store owners who colonized downtown 30 years ago, after it emptied out for the malls, weren't looking to create a 'quaint' shopping experience. They were looking to survive, with cheap rents. Oh, sure. They had dreams, but they didn't realize that as they succeeded, they also brought in the less than original, the big box and mass merchandisers...the kind of stores that could be anywhere U.S.A. and add nothing to the unique atmosphere of Bend.

And following close behind, those who simply saw the surface attraction of downtown Bend, but didn't see the hard work and inspiration. The boho's have pretty much been replaced; the very hardscrabble but creative atmosphere they created attracted people with money.

See, I truly believe that necessity is the mother of invention.

Prima Facia evidence: Star Wars movies. Great when Lucas had to be creative, sucky when he had the money to fill the screens with buzzing extras.

People who have money, don't have to figure out how to make it work with less. But I think people are attracted to that down and dirty creativity, at least subconsciously. Of course, they love the big and new -- Redmond Walmart; and they love the shiny and fresh -- the Old Mill district; they love the expensive and exclusive -- new downtown.

But they also love the creative and the invented and the humble make-do.

So what happened?

They seemed to feel a need to reinvent Bend -- like a new wife, remaking her husband. "Throw away those comics, honey....you don't need them. I know you love movies, but really, it's time for you to grow up." Worse, at some point, they forgot what Bend was in the first place, and then even worse, they simply didn't care.

So we get a whole new concept.

O.K. I'm projecting.

That's why I came back to Bend.

I admit, I was happy that we got some movie theaters and bookstores. But....well, the hits just kept coming.

I've been accused of being hypocritical: accepting all the extra business that newcomers bring while decrying all the changes.

But I have to believe there is a happy medium: as in all things. Moderation. And we've gone way past that. So far past that, that most newcomers have no idea what originally attracted people here.

They came here because others came here. Not everyone, but a hefty percentage.

Sorry, that's the way it looks to me.