Time line for success. — Duncan McGeary

When you talk about economic recovery, you really have to include a timeline. Some people talk about recovery as if it's just around the corner, when they are really talking about 2 or 3 years.

It's pretty hard to forecast farther out than that.

I think it's important to try to find some historical context. The article in the Bulletin today about empty subdivisions has this quote about growth from a developer: "I think it will be slower; we won't get quite to the speed we were seeing in 2004 and 2005."

Let's assume that word "quite" was ironic. Because we will never ever see that kind of growth again in our lifetimes and if we do, watch out!

So if you say, "Yes, we're on the road to recovery" and you mean 3 years from now, I won't argue with you.

But holding your breath underwater for 3 years isn't much reassurance.

I'm close enough to the end of my career, that there isn't much incentive to take big chances. But if I was younger, I know what I'd do.

I'd bet on the big chainstores to start to collapse. (Start, as in over the next 10 or 20 years.) To a young person, that may seem like forever, but really, it's smack dab in the middle of a career that starts now.

I like reading James Kunstler's (kunstler.com) views on chainstores, because he is so snarky. Here's some quotes from an article:

"The unintended consequence of their victories through the 1970s and beyond was the total destruction of local economic networks, that is, Main Streets and downtowns, in effect destroying many of their own livelihoods. Wasn't that a bargain, though? "

And this:

"America made itself hostage to bargain shopping and then committed suicide. Here we find another axiom of human affairs at work: People get what they deserve, not what they expect. Life is tragic."

And this:

"Though the public hasn't groked it yet, WalMart and its kindred malignant organisms have entered their own yeast-overgrowth death spiral. In a now permanently contracting economy the big box model fails spectacularly. Every element of economic reality is now poised to squash them"

He lists a whole series of things that are going to "squash them." I agree, but I think it's going to be a very slow process, one that most people will only notice in hindsight.

I think small stores are coming back.

The large stores have been illogical for awhile now. But to paraphrase an old saying: The situation can remain illogical longer than logical people can outlast the situation.

Kunstler is making the case that young people should see an entrepreunerial opportunity here:

"...the coming implosion of big box retail implies tremendous opportunities for young people to make a livelihood in the imperative rebuilding of local economies. At this stage it is probably discouraging for them, because all their life programming has conditioned them to be hostages of giant corporations and so to feel helpless."

And I totally agree.

As long as they include a long enough time frame to measure success.