I was ready to tackle the "Growth is Expected in Central Oregon" article in the Bulletin. But there was nothing to tackle but air.
Other than Facebook creating more (temporary) jobs, not a lot substance. The forecast was so general and vague as to be pretty useless.
Let's see. To get more jobs, we need to be more "innovative." Which is pretty much saying that we could get more work done if we work harder.
Thanks. What are we paying you, again?
So nothing much there. I'll just fall back on my on internal guesstimates.
As I mentioned a few days ago, I don't expect my sales to get back to pre-crash numbers until 2016 or so. Which falls in line with the other article in the Bulletin, "Few Cities Have Regained Jobs...." which predicted it would be 2016-2018 before Bend regained the jobs it lost.
Is the economy improving?
Lots of articles to that effect. All over the place.
My own guess isn't that it's improving so much, as that people have settled in. The new baseline to work from.
Unless Europe goes south, and gauging from the falloff in news about that (and only gauging from the falloff in news about that) the danger seems to be slowly receding.
Still, plenty of warning articles as well.
Not that the media is a reliable gauge, but probably more reliable now than it was during the boom. There is definitely an optimism bias there. But at least there is a bit more skepticism these days.
Locally, I still know quite a few people who are struggling. I have a customer who works for a major employer around here whose entire office division was laid off -- and he thought the manufacturing part was not far behind. If so, it will be a major blow.
On one hand, this is the 'real' economy in Bend, and I think it's still struggling. But I can deal with that. It's just a one damn thing after another scenario which I'm completely accustomed to. What I was dealing with in the first decade of my business....well, hell, for most of the years I've been in business.
On the other hand, I'm actually more fearful of economic panics -- such as the collapse of Europe, or any other earth shaking event. Those can have more dramatic impacts on sales than the slow drip, drip, drip of a struggling local economy.
We had a nice Christmas, but I think that we're talking about tourists who are affluent enough to visit Central Oregon in the first place -- are probably affluent enough to actually shop, and since they are on vacation, will buy in shops instead of online. (This goes double for new residents who start new businesses -- that they can move here and open stores probably just shows they have the means to do so.)
Which is a real valuable attribute to Bend's tourist economy. (The Growth article also mentioned the "retirement" business as being a growth area.)
So, as usual, I fall back on tourism and retirement as being our main industry around here, which unfortunately means that we'll remain mostly "poverty with a view" for most of us.
I think that's O.K. as long as we understand and adapt to it.
Other than Facebook creating more (temporary) jobs, not a lot substance. The forecast was so general and vague as to be pretty useless.
Let's see. To get more jobs, we need to be more "innovative." Which is pretty much saying that we could get more work done if we work harder.
Thanks. What are we paying you, again?
So nothing much there. I'll just fall back on my on internal guesstimates.
As I mentioned a few days ago, I don't expect my sales to get back to pre-crash numbers until 2016 or so. Which falls in line with the other article in the Bulletin, "Few Cities Have Regained Jobs...." which predicted it would be 2016-2018 before Bend regained the jobs it lost.
Is the economy improving?
Lots of articles to that effect. All over the place.
My own guess isn't that it's improving so much, as that people have settled in. The new baseline to work from.
Unless Europe goes south, and gauging from the falloff in news about that (and only gauging from the falloff in news about that) the danger seems to be slowly receding.
Still, plenty of warning articles as well.
Not that the media is a reliable gauge, but probably more reliable now than it was during the boom. There is definitely an optimism bias there. But at least there is a bit more skepticism these days.
Locally, I still know quite a few people who are struggling. I have a customer who works for a major employer around here whose entire office division was laid off -- and he thought the manufacturing part was not far behind. If so, it will be a major blow.
On one hand, this is the 'real' economy in Bend, and I think it's still struggling. But I can deal with that. It's just a one damn thing after another scenario which I'm completely accustomed to. What I was dealing with in the first decade of my business....well, hell, for most of the years I've been in business.
On the other hand, I'm actually more fearful of economic panics -- such as the collapse of Europe, or any other earth shaking event. Those can have more dramatic impacts on sales than the slow drip, drip, drip of a struggling local economy.
We had a nice Christmas, but I think that we're talking about tourists who are affluent enough to visit Central Oregon in the first place -- are probably affluent enough to actually shop, and since they are on vacation, will buy in shops instead of online. (This goes double for new residents who start new businesses -- that they can move here and open stores probably just shows they have the means to do so.)
Which is a real valuable attribute to Bend's tourist economy. (The Growth article also mentioned the "retirement" business as being a growth area.)
So, as usual, I fall back on tourism and retirement as being our main industry around here, which unfortunately means that we'll remain mostly "poverty with a view" for most of us.
I think that's O.K. as long as we understand and adapt to it.