I'm feeling half smart.
(Forgive the egocentricity of this entry. But it is in the forefront of my mind. I should feel fortunate that I have savings to worry about at all. I know the stock market is not a factor in many people's lives...)
I took one half of the available money out of the stock market in mid-July, but put it back in on Wednesday, the 3rd of August.
If I had waited just one more day! There was no reason to jump back in that day, I just had a moment to call my financial guy so I did.
I had avoided the first third of the downturn. I also put 35% into a 'safe' investment, which so far has proven to be pretty safe-- that is, it's dropped about 1% when the rest of the market has dropped 10 times that much.
So by my reckoning, I saved myself about half the available pain.
However, when I say available, I could've sold the other half in cash in mid-July as well -- but that seemed more complicated and more like panic selling.
So that makes me about one quarter smart.
Still -- I coulda been a contender. I could have crowed. Instead, I'm eating crow.
What now? I haven't a clue. And when I don't have a clue, I tend to just keep doing what I'm doing.
I think I have a tendency to not give myself enough 'lag' time. I think it's because I somehow believe the markets are more efficient than they actually are. I get the basic swing right, but the timing wrong.
I remember back to when I decided the comic bubble was about to pop. It was in March, (94?) and I was making my orders for May product. I cut back drastically on my orders for June, July, and August, believing I could sell any overflow from April, May during our 'busy' months.
What I didn't see coming was that the majority of the heavily ordered April, May product, didn't show up until Sept, Oct. and Nov. So even though I was right about the timing -- amazingly so -- I didn't realize there would be a six month lag, or delay.
I tend to be pretty good about my analysis, but I don't give it enough time to develop.
That's why, when this recession started, I told myself in advance not to expect any improvement in sales for at least 7 years, probably longer. 4 years into the recession, which I don't think ever went away for those of us on Main St., that estimate is looking a little low.
(Forgive the egocentricity of this entry. But it is in the forefront of my mind. I should feel fortunate that I have savings to worry about at all. I know the stock market is not a factor in many people's lives...)
I took one half of the available money out of the stock market in mid-July, but put it back in on Wednesday, the 3rd of August.
If I had waited just one more day! There was no reason to jump back in that day, I just had a moment to call my financial guy so I did.
I had avoided the first third of the downturn. I also put 35% into a 'safe' investment, which so far has proven to be pretty safe-- that is, it's dropped about 1% when the rest of the market has dropped 10 times that much.
So by my reckoning, I saved myself about half the available pain.
However, when I say available, I could've sold the other half in cash in mid-July as well -- but that seemed more complicated and more like panic selling.
So that makes me about one quarter smart.
Still -- I coulda been a contender. I could have crowed. Instead, I'm eating crow.
What now? I haven't a clue. And when I don't have a clue, I tend to just keep doing what I'm doing.
I think I have a tendency to not give myself enough 'lag' time. I think it's because I somehow believe the markets are more efficient than they actually are. I get the basic swing right, but the timing wrong.
I remember back to when I decided the comic bubble was about to pop. It was in March, (94?) and I was making my orders for May product. I cut back drastically on my orders for June, July, and August, believing I could sell any overflow from April, May during our 'busy' months.
What I didn't see coming was that the majority of the heavily ordered April, May product, didn't show up until Sept, Oct. and Nov. So even though I was right about the timing -- amazingly so -- I didn't realize there would be a six month lag, or delay.
I tend to be pretty good about my analysis, but I don't give it enough time to develop.
That's why, when this recession started, I told myself in advance not to expect any improvement in sales for at least 7 years, probably longer. 4 years into the recession, which I don't think ever went away for those of us on Main St., that estimate is looking a little low.