A few days ago, in The Sea is Calm, the Sea is Stormy, I commented on the completely divergent views I'm gleaning from the economic press.
Today's Bulletin has a review of the Central Oregon's Economic Forecast meeting.
Obviously, I'm much more inclined to believe Tim Duy's prediction, than the other fellow. I think Central Oregon still has a leg down to go, or two.
I think there is, and will continue to be, a "superficial" recovery. Stores opening (and then quietly closing a year or two later). The "appeal" of Bend is working to that extent. But the underlying economic forces are an undertow which will be a constant drag on that optimism.
In a sense, the optimists are saying that "If you Build it, They will come." The realists are saying, "And work Where? At what Wages? Buy a house and watch it drop in Value? Open a business without a complete understanding of local conditions?"
I remember when we were in the Mountain View Mall, there was an almost constant optimism that the mall was going to recover -- new owners, new facade, new advertising campaign. But the fundamentals were so flawed, that nothing less than a total makeover -- such as what Sunriver is doing -- was going to help. In fact, the Bend River Mall made much more drastic changes, and -- well, it doesn't appear to have helped all that much, though there are so few small stores there now, who knows?
The Mountain View Mall is gone completely, and much of this happened during the Boom. The damage was before the Boom. The Boom created Cascade Village -- which is completely unattractive to me.
Anyway, I don't know that I have any further insights into all this. But there doesn't seem to be any other blogs left who are a platform for views about the local economy, and I'd love to hear what you guys think.
Today's Bulletin has a review of the Central Oregon's Economic Forecast meeting.
Obviously, I'm much more inclined to believe Tim Duy's prediction, than the other fellow. I think Central Oregon still has a leg down to go, or two.
I think there is, and will continue to be, a "superficial" recovery. Stores opening (and then quietly closing a year or two later). The "appeal" of Bend is working to that extent. But the underlying economic forces are an undertow which will be a constant drag on that optimism.
In a sense, the optimists are saying that "If you Build it, They will come." The realists are saying, "And work Where? At what Wages? Buy a house and watch it drop in Value? Open a business without a complete understanding of local conditions?"
I remember when we were in the Mountain View Mall, there was an almost constant optimism that the mall was going to recover -- new owners, new facade, new advertising campaign. But the fundamentals were so flawed, that nothing less than a total makeover -- such as what Sunriver is doing -- was going to help. In fact, the Bend River Mall made much more drastic changes, and -- well, it doesn't appear to have helped all that much, though there are so few small stores there now, who knows?
The Mountain View Mall is gone completely, and much of this happened during the Boom. The damage was before the Boom. The Boom created Cascade Village -- which is completely unattractive to me.
Anyway, I don't know that I have any further insights into all this. But there doesn't seem to be any other blogs left who are a platform for views about the local economy, and I'd love to hear what you guys think.