My wife's mother was born in 1905, and she still remembered the horse and buggy days, seeing early cars and her first airplane.
I think we're living in one of those times, like the introduction of the railroad and the telegraph.
Change is always happening, but the kind of change the internet represents is truly a once in a lifetime paradigm shift. We all thought it was the computer that was changing things, but I think the internet is having even more impact. (Yes, I know -- the internet is only possible because of the computer.)
There is a certain thrill the creative destruction that's occurring right now. I'd like to stick around long enough to see where it's going.
It's fun to think about the potential of the book trade, for instance, even though I'm going to be affected by it.
One thing that has puzzled me, and I haven't read anyone else really comment on it, is I wonder how the makers of Nook and Kindle think they are going to keep the e-book in any way proprietary.
If it's the technology they're selling, then I'd put my money on a couple of alternatives. On the high end, I'd be willing to bet that Apple is going to eat their lunch. That they'll be quicker and more thorough and more ruthless in advancing the state of the art.
On the low end, I'm just betting that there will be many, many low cost alternatives that will do what Kindle and Nook do, probably just about as well.
So is the money in the selling of books?
Only if it's somehow exclusive to that particular reader.
What happens if you can only get a particular book on a particular reader? I think the whole thing falls apart. The whole thing becomes Balkanized. Hell, it might come down to each individual publisher selling their books on their their own individual e-reader.
I'm betting that won't happen. Certainly, it would lower the value of the e-reader to the point I'd doubt I'd want one. If that happens, paper books will start looking more attractive again.
So if any reader can download any book, than I'd bet on entities other than Amazon and Barnes and Noble being cheaper. There are always people willing to sell for cost, in the attempt to gain market share.
The money from online newspapers isn't replacing the money they get from the physical paper. Every time a paper goes behind a paywall, it drops in readership. I know that I read the Oregonian and the USA Today online every day, after having bought the physical newspaper for decades.
If I was Barnes and Noble, I'd probably try to take the enterprise private, and then rededicate into doing a good job as a brick and mortar business. If it requires smaller stores, then that's what I'd do. More selective inventory? Then I'd do that. But I wouldn't bet on my future being technology -- or online service. I think others will be much better at it.
We'll see, I guess.
I think we're living in one of those times, like the introduction of the railroad and the telegraph.
Change is always happening, but the kind of change the internet represents is truly a once in a lifetime paradigm shift. We all thought it was the computer that was changing things, but I think the internet is having even more impact. (Yes, I know -- the internet is only possible because of the computer.)
There is a certain thrill the creative destruction that's occurring right now. I'd like to stick around long enough to see where it's going.
It's fun to think about the potential of the book trade, for instance, even though I'm going to be affected by it.
One thing that has puzzled me, and I haven't read anyone else really comment on it, is I wonder how the makers of Nook and Kindle think they are going to keep the e-book in any way proprietary.
If it's the technology they're selling, then I'd put my money on a couple of alternatives. On the high end, I'd be willing to bet that Apple is going to eat their lunch. That they'll be quicker and more thorough and more ruthless in advancing the state of the art.
On the low end, I'm just betting that there will be many, many low cost alternatives that will do what Kindle and Nook do, probably just about as well.
So is the money in the selling of books?
Only if it's somehow exclusive to that particular reader.
What happens if you can only get a particular book on a particular reader? I think the whole thing falls apart. The whole thing becomes Balkanized. Hell, it might come down to each individual publisher selling their books on their their own individual e-reader.
I'm betting that won't happen. Certainly, it would lower the value of the e-reader to the point I'd doubt I'd want one. If that happens, paper books will start looking more attractive again.
So if any reader can download any book, than I'd bet on entities other than Amazon and Barnes and Noble being cheaper. There are always people willing to sell for cost, in the attempt to gain market share.
The money from online newspapers isn't replacing the money they get from the physical paper. Every time a paper goes behind a paywall, it drops in readership. I know that I read the Oregonian and the USA Today online every day, after having bought the physical newspaper for decades.
If I was Barnes and Noble, I'd probably try to take the enterprise private, and then rededicate into doing a good job as a brick and mortar business. If it requires smaller stores, then that's what I'd do. More selective inventory? Then I'd do that. But I wouldn't bet on my future being technology -- or online service. I think others will be much better at it.
We'll see, I guess.