I feel almost an obligation to take on the real estate issues, since nobody else seems to want to anymore. But I just don't know enough about the inner mechanics -- and though I read the economic blogs, I'm not obsessive about it.
For instance, I know there is much to say about the Bulletin's front page story: "Deschutes County Sees Drop in Notices of Default", but much of the contrary information was put out weeks and months ago on blogs like Calculated Risk, and it'd be a huge chore to try to dredge it up now.
I'll point out the most obvious -- the last quarter of 2009 was comparing to the last quarter of 2008, which was -- as I'll keep saying -- the 90 pound weakling of quarters.
Also, for a breathtaking shot of clarity and perspective, check out the chart of "notices of default." 221 in 2006; 3,507 in 2009.
My own analysis is that the drop is probably due more to delay and short-term boosts than to any underlying change. Hey, underwater homeowner, apply for a loan modification so we don't have to default on your lagging ass until later....
If Bend runs a year behind, we'll hear about defaults being lower elsewhere in the country first; and the experts quoted in the article are predicting an INCREASE in Notices of Default nationwide in 2010.
Suffice to say, I don't think Deschutes County is anywhere near out of the woods.
For instance, I know there is much to say about the Bulletin's front page story: "Deschutes County Sees Drop in Notices of Default", but much of the contrary information was put out weeks and months ago on blogs like Calculated Risk, and it'd be a huge chore to try to dredge it up now.
I'll point out the most obvious -- the last quarter of 2009 was comparing to the last quarter of 2008, which was -- as I'll keep saying -- the 90 pound weakling of quarters.
Also, for a breathtaking shot of clarity and perspective, check out the chart of "notices of default." 221 in 2006; 3,507 in 2009.
My own analysis is that the drop is probably due more to delay and short-term boosts than to any underlying change. Hey, underwater homeowner, apply for a loan modification so we don't have to default on your lagging ass until later....
If Bend runs a year behind, we'll hear about defaults being lower elsewhere in the country first; and the experts quoted in the article are predicting an INCREASE in Notices of Default nationwide in 2010.
Suffice to say, I don't think Deschutes County is anywhere near out of the woods.