Fair Warning.
I've been watching CNBC, MSNBC, and Bloomberg for a couple of hours.
They scared the shit out of me.
My experience with bubbles has never been good. Sports cards, comics, non-sports cards, ccg games, pogs, beanie babies, pokemon; all crashed spectacularly. It got so I'd look at a bubbles at their peak, and just stripped it all away, trying to see the skeleton underneath. I looked at what I thought would be the worst case drop off, and THEN DOUBLED IT!
And that never failed. It was always at least that bad. The crash was always bigger than I expected or hoped, and laster longer.
So...once again, I'd hoped I was wrong, but it's turning out I was right.
The big thing to watch for was always the underlying psychology. When it turned negative, it was all over.
I'll tell you what; if people were still holding out hope they could sell their houses for any kind of premium price, I figure they're waking up now.
They may not be able to sell their house at ANY price, nor borrow money no matter how good their credit or how much they put down.
Capitulation is coming soon.
Been watching CNBC, and here's a couple of eye-openers. You know all those latte coffee machines that McDonald's was planning on installing in all their franchises?
Bank of America has cut off their credit.
To McDonald's. Ditto Dow Chemical. There was an analyst who seemed utterly shocked that Dow wasn't able to borrow money. You could tell she was stunned, disbelieving.
So good luck for all the average shmoes with trying to borrow money.
I'm sort of expecting my credit cards to be taken back -- even though, or maybe because -- I owe ZERO balance. Risk adverse banks aren't going to look at the credit history, they are going to look at the credit risk.
And when they start punishing the people who can actually pay, the whole thing has pretty much fallen apart.
This is the real deal.
And people are sitting on their wallets.
I've been watching CNBC, MSNBC, and Bloomberg for a couple of hours.
They scared the shit out of me.
My experience with bubbles has never been good. Sports cards, comics, non-sports cards, ccg games, pogs, beanie babies, pokemon; all crashed spectacularly. It got so I'd look at a bubbles at their peak, and just stripped it all away, trying to see the skeleton underneath. I looked at what I thought would be the worst case drop off, and THEN DOUBLED IT!
And that never failed. It was always at least that bad. The crash was always bigger than I expected or hoped, and laster longer.
So...once again, I'd hoped I was wrong, but it's turning out I was right.
The big thing to watch for was always the underlying psychology. When it turned negative, it was all over.
I'll tell you what; if people were still holding out hope they could sell their houses for any kind of premium price, I figure they're waking up now.
They may not be able to sell their house at ANY price, nor borrow money no matter how good their credit or how much they put down.
Capitulation is coming soon.
Been watching CNBC, and here's a couple of eye-openers. You know all those latte coffee machines that McDonald's was planning on installing in all their franchises?
Bank of America has cut off their credit.
To McDonald's. Ditto Dow Chemical. There was an analyst who seemed utterly shocked that Dow wasn't able to borrow money. You could tell she was stunned, disbelieving.
So good luck for all the average shmoes with trying to borrow money.
I'm sort of expecting my credit cards to be taken back -- even though, or maybe because -- I owe ZERO balance. Risk adverse banks aren't going to look at the credit history, they are going to look at the credit risk.
And when they start punishing the people who can actually pay, the whole thing has pretty much fallen apart.
This is the real deal.
And people are sitting on their wallets.