Statistically insignificant, but still an increase is an increase. This is only the second time since August of 2007. Now we're rolling over on the months where the declines started, so we might be able to match them more often.
Several other months have been almost even, and a few have been absolutely awful.
We're down about 12% this year in sales; which for a corporation would be horrible and huge, but for a Mom and Pop business, not so much. Much more adaptable, we little guys. So much so that I don't consider anything less than 20% down to be harmful, as long as my spending is right. (Not fun, and somewhat discouraging, but not something that can't be handled.)
I keep hearing from others that sales are down about 25%; and I think if I had the same product mix as 2 years ago, I would be down that much too. Fortunately, new books and board games have been making up for the slack. Pat turned to me the other day and said, "We need more new books!" Sales are outstripping my ordering, which is a good sign but also dangerous. I don't need much encouragement to go crazy ordering. I'd like to see what the fall and spring bring us with new book sales....
We've made much more profit this year, by cutting our spending.
In the last couple of months, I've started buying again; but trying to be canny about it. This week's invoice, for instance, came in at a full 10% cheaper than last year's average. I'm probably averaging a good 5% better Cost of Goods this year. Part of this is not paying the huge 'reship' costs, and part is from looking for bargains. We're getting into the rhythm of buying on a 10-20 day delay, instead of a 2 to 10 day delay.
Got a call from a dealer in Texas who was thinking about adding used books. While giving him my sage advice, he casually mentioned how many comics he sells. Easily double what I sell. I'm always so frustrated by that. I think I've got a well stocked store, and yet I've never been able to get comics more than 2/3rds of the level I think they should be. His rent was less than 1.00 a foot; mine is well over double, almost triple his, per foot, and likely to go up.
Oh, well. I live in paradise, right? I have the best minimum wage job in Bend a middle aged guy could ever have, right?
Finally, I can't help but comment on the "3 builders" article in today's Bulletin.
I hope that what they are saying for public consumption isn't what they are really thinking. They are projecting 'best case' scenario's which I think are wildly optimistic. In fact, the scenario that one of the builders said would create more problems for him -- his 'worst case' -- seems to me to be a certainty. Based on what has happened in California and Florida, I think two years is too short a time, especially if they time it from mid-2006. (Sure isn't what they were saying in mid-2006.)
So mid-2007 is a more realistic date to when they started to get religion. And I believe a two to three year slide from there, a bump along the bottom for another year or two, and maybe a 2 year slow rise. More a 6 to 7 year process before they can really cash in on surviving.
At least, that's what I'd be planning for, if I were them. And a middle scenario of 3 to 4 years. High, middle and low. That's the way to plan for contingencies.
Planning your business on the absolute best case is a dangerous, dangerous thing to do. I'll assume that they have some brains and are only saying this out loud, and meanwhile planning for a more dire scenario.
Several other months have been almost even, and a few have been absolutely awful.
We're down about 12% this year in sales; which for a corporation would be horrible and huge, but for a Mom and Pop business, not so much. Much more adaptable, we little guys. So much so that I don't consider anything less than 20% down to be harmful, as long as my spending is right. (Not fun, and somewhat discouraging, but not something that can't be handled.)
I keep hearing from others that sales are down about 25%; and I think if I had the same product mix as 2 years ago, I would be down that much too. Fortunately, new books and board games have been making up for the slack. Pat turned to me the other day and said, "We need more new books!" Sales are outstripping my ordering, which is a good sign but also dangerous. I don't need much encouragement to go crazy ordering. I'd like to see what the fall and spring bring us with new book sales....
We've made much more profit this year, by cutting our spending.
In the last couple of months, I've started buying again; but trying to be canny about it. This week's invoice, for instance, came in at a full 10% cheaper than last year's average. I'm probably averaging a good 5% better Cost of Goods this year. Part of this is not paying the huge 'reship' costs, and part is from looking for bargains. We're getting into the rhythm of buying on a 10-20 day delay, instead of a 2 to 10 day delay.
Got a call from a dealer in Texas who was thinking about adding used books. While giving him my sage advice, he casually mentioned how many comics he sells. Easily double what I sell. I'm always so frustrated by that. I think I've got a well stocked store, and yet I've never been able to get comics more than 2/3rds of the level I think they should be. His rent was less than 1.00 a foot; mine is well over double, almost triple his, per foot, and likely to go up.
Oh, well. I live in paradise, right? I have the best minimum wage job in Bend a middle aged guy could ever have, right?
Finally, I can't help but comment on the "3 builders" article in today's Bulletin.
I hope that what they are saying for public consumption isn't what they are really thinking. They are projecting 'best case' scenario's which I think are wildly optimistic. In fact, the scenario that one of the builders said would create more problems for him -- his 'worst case' -- seems to me to be a certainty. Based on what has happened in California and Florida, I think two years is too short a time, especially if they time it from mid-2006. (Sure isn't what they were saying in mid-2006.)
So mid-2007 is a more realistic date to when they started to get religion. And I believe a two to three year slide from there, a bump along the bottom for another year or two, and maybe a 2 year slow rise. More a 6 to 7 year process before they can really cash in on surviving.
At least, that's what I'd be planning for, if I were them. And a middle scenario of 3 to 4 years. High, middle and low. That's the way to plan for contingencies.
Planning your business on the absolute best case is a dangerous, dangerous thing to do. I'll assume that they have some brains and are only saying this out loud, and meanwhile planning for a more dire scenario.