What a load of jawboning in the Bulletin today. The city has it all under control; tourism rides to the rescue; the youth vote will pass the BAT.
Yeah, right.
Really, you get the sense that no one knows what going to happen, they are just starting to realize they better have some 'fall-back' positions in place in case it all goes to hell.
And they have the ninnies of Wall Street as examples. Stocks go up 400 points? Huh?
Anyway, it's time for me to take a step back and just look at my own situation without all the outside information. Usually the more info the better, but all this superficial blather is fogging up the mirror.
What I've come up with so far.
1.) the downturn in sales has almost everything to do with the economy, not the product. This is actually a bit of relief. Usually, big drops have everything to do with the product, not the economy. There is a floor, I believe, the the economy. With product, there sometimes is no floor.
So I don't believe that I'm looking at 50% or 60% or 100% drops like can happen when a fad busts, but more like 20% or 30%.
2.) there is still time to get my store in better shape; clear away bills, moderate costs, etc. All this jawboning may just be holding off the inevitable, (which may be it's purpose, while the insiders clear out, leaving the less wary holding the bag.) I've got to weather the next three months, try to get ahead of the curve for once. Summer will be better, probably, and then a short span until Christmas. Should be able to negotiate the pitfalls.
3.) this is a different situation than I've ever seen before. I bought the store at the bottom of the biggest recession of my career, in 1984, and I'm not really kidding that I think it's sometimes best to open or buy a business at the bottom -- you have no where to go but up (or out). It goes along with the idea of 'growing a business'; starting small and modest, taking your lumps with less on the line, and then growing.
The other two 'official' recessions, I barely noticed, either because I was in the throes of rapid growth or rapid decline, due to product fads.
4.) For once in my career, my store is fully stocked. I've managed to avoid even spot shortages so far. No one who knows what they're talking about can accuse my store of not 'having anything...' It's like having a huge reserve of fat.
5.) I'm on my own. I always am, but situations like this really bring it home. I have to trust my instincts, and ignore all the rapid building around me, the new stores, the new owners.
Had a couple of conversations with new or potential residents yesterday morning, and after they left I had a sense of wrongness. Then I figured it out; I had sounded like I was saying the old days, with all my pals, was great, but now I feel out of place.
B.S. Funny how the mind plays tricks. I never felt included. I've always been a loner. I've always felt as though downtowners have always looked askance at me and my business (though I readily admit this may only be in my head, and at least partly my fault for not trying to join in.) Indeed, if anything, I feel more accepted nowadays. So the town growing, well, it really hasn't matter all the much to me and my business. Not relating all that well to 150k residents ain't all that different than not relating all the well to 20k residents. I need to get off that kick.
So, this is pretty much new territory for me. If you read this blog, you know that I love analogies and parallels. But I'm not sure what to compare this with. So I fall back on my instincts, which are to be careful.
It is much, mush easier to gear back up to full speed if I'm wrong. It's twice as easy to just start buying again, than it is to try to start cutting after the fact. So far, I've managed to gauge it pretty well; each time, I thought I was overreacting, it seems to fit the circumstances almost exactly.
So nevermind the 'happy talk' news. Try to see things for the way they are.
Yeah, right.
Really, you get the sense that no one knows what going to happen, they are just starting to realize they better have some 'fall-back' positions in place in case it all goes to hell.
And they have the ninnies of Wall Street as examples. Stocks go up 400 points? Huh?
Anyway, it's time for me to take a step back and just look at my own situation without all the outside information. Usually the more info the better, but all this superficial blather is fogging up the mirror.
What I've come up with so far.
1.) the downturn in sales has almost everything to do with the economy, not the product. This is actually a bit of relief. Usually, big drops have everything to do with the product, not the economy. There is a floor, I believe, the the economy. With product, there sometimes is no floor.
So I don't believe that I'm looking at 50% or 60% or 100% drops like can happen when a fad busts, but more like 20% or 30%.
2.) there is still time to get my store in better shape; clear away bills, moderate costs, etc. All this jawboning may just be holding off the inevitable, (which may be it's purpose, while the insiders clear out, leaving the less wary holding the bag.) I've got to weather the next three months, try to get ahead of the curve for once. Summer will be better, probably, and then a short span until Christmas. Should be able to negotiate the pitfalls.
3.) this is a different situation than I've ever seen before. I bought the store at the bottom of the biggest recession of my career, in 1984, and I'm not really kidding that I think it's sometimes best to open or buy a business at the bottom -- you have no where to go but up (or out). It goes along with the idea of 'growing a business'; starting small and modest, taking your lumps with less on the line, and then growing.
The other two 'official' recessions, I barely noticed, either because I was in the throes of rapid growth or rapid decline, due to product fads.
4.) For once in my career, my store is fully stocked. I've managed to avoid even spot shortages so far. No one who knows what they're talking about can accuse my store of not 'having anything...' It's like having a huge reserve of fat.
5.) I'm on my own. I always am, but situations like this really bring it home. I have to trust my instincts, and ignore all the rapid building around me, the new stores, the new owners.
Had a couple of conversations with new or potential residents yesterday morning, and after they left I had a sense of wrongness. Then I figured it out; I had sounded like I was saying the old days, with all my pals, was great, but now I feel out of place.
B.S. Funny how the mind plays tricks. I never felt included. I've always been a loner. I've always felt as though downtowners have always looked askance at me and my business (though I readily admit this may only be in my head, and at least partly my fault for not trying to join in.) Indeed, if anything, I feel more accepted nowadays. So the town growing, well, it really hasn't matter all the much to me and my business. Not relating all that well to 150k residents ain't all that different than not relating all the well to 20k residents. I need to get off that kick.
So, this is pretty much new territory for me. If you read this blog, you know that I love analogies and parallels. But I'm not sure what to compare this with. So I fall back on my instincts, which are to be careful.
It is much, mush easier to gear back up to full speed if I'm wrong. It's twice as easy to just start buying again, than it is to try to start cutting after the fact. So far, I've managed to gauge it pretty well; each time, I thought I was overreacting, it seems to fit the circumstances almost exactly.
So nevermind the 'happy talk' news. Try to see things for the way they are.