Because of the rowdy nature of some of these blogs, I find myself having to revisit my basic views about what's happening in Bend.
I grew up here. When I went off to college, in the early 70's, there wasn't even a bookstore. We still had only the Tower Theater, a small theater next to it that started off showing smaller films and then x-rated films, and a drive-in (ditto). A T.V. station came in around the end of my college career. (I had the seven year plan, flunk the first year, take two years off, and go back for another 4 years....) In other words, Bend was small. I'm not terribly nostalgic for the old Bend.
Two malls were built in the late 70's, and downtown nearly emptied out. It was starting to recover when the Reagan recession hit. And we stayed in a near depression until the late 80's.
Pegasus was established in 1980 by Micheal Richardson of Dark Horse, and I worked there from the beginning. I bought the store in 1984. It's always seemed to hit a ceiling in sales just below a real profitable, sustainable level, no matter how the city of Bend has grown, because of the declining customer base for what I sell, and the increased retail competition.
Still, all in all, I'm not anti-growth. I'm anti-stupid growth, anti-rude newcomers.
When I started this blog, all I saw was that they were building way too many houses. That's it. It seemed an obvious bubble. All the credit stuff has emerged since then, but hasn't changed the fundamental observation. I've shifted, somewhat, to more concern over the retail bubble.
As far as the Bulletin is concerned; it is a basically conservative paper which derives it's income from advertising. Of course it's pro-growth, pro-business. I wouldn't expect it to be any different. The Source has positioned itself as the 'alternative' weekly, with more new-agey, youthy tack, but it also benefits from the growth of Bend, and especially the growth of 'culture.'
I believe both papers think they working for the public good. The Source believes that closing the downtown streets for Festivals is a good thing. I don't.
I don't believe developers are inherently evil; but they certainly have shown themselves to lack taste and class, and not to be particularly bright in their planning. The old-timers, such as Hollern and Bauhofer, seem to have a bit more perspective, is all. I don't personally care for golf courses and gated communities.
I don't believe there is any conspiracy; hell, I don't think all these guys are that smart or smooth. I believe that money protects money. Birds of a feather flock together. Power corrupts. Don't need no evil planning for greed and stupidity and short-sighted to overwhelm our little town, creating a superficial and over-blown culture that may just implode.
And I'm ambivalent about the implosion, because I know that the innocents may get taken down along with the guilty.
The best we can hope for, right now, is some kind of soft landing; which is only going to happen if Bend truly is the unique baby-boomer magnet we tend to think it is. I'm lowering my estimates of that yet again. I think an 80's style recession has jumped from the 10% I was predicting earlier this year, to a 30%. I think the changes we'll escape without major damage has dropped from 20% to 10%. And it will be sheer luck.
Mostly, we'll muddle through. There is so much froth going on, that it may still be bubbling when a recovery begins. The commercial boom is going to cause some long-term problems, I believe, but it may just pull us through the worst of the housing bust.
I'm planning for lower sales. And watching it all with trepidation and awe.
Oh, I left out the city government. I think it was overwhelmed by the growth. We fired a competent city manager just when we needed him most, and for whatever reasons, the two city managers that followed didn't work out. They've made some bone-headed decisions, and there seems to be a snarled up mess in the bureaucracy.
The city council? Well, why would anyone run for such a thankless job? Nobless Oblige? Ego? To make connections? All of these motivations could lead to some pretty awful decision making. But we have no alternative, and paying them a living wage would just open up the process to other -- maybe worse -- problems.
I consider myself the outsider observer, for what it's worth. I don't have any inside knowledge. Just the viewpoint of a native Bendite who has run a business in Downtown Bend for the last 28 years. And who enjoys writing.
I grew up here. When I went off to college, in the early 70's, there wasn't even a bookstore. We still had only the Tower Theater, a small theater next to it that started off showing smaller films and then x-rated films, and a drive-in (ditto). A T.V. station came in around the end of my college career. (I had the seven year plan, flunk the first year, take two years off, and go back for another 4 years....) In other words, Bend was small. I'm not terribly nostalgic for the old Bend.
Two malls were built in the late 70's, and downtown nearly emptied out. It was starting to recover when the Reagan recession hit. And we stayed in a near depression until the late 80's.
Pegasus was established in 1980 by Micheal Richardson of Dark Horse, and I worked there from the beginning. I bought the store in 1984. It's always seemed to hit a ceiling in sales just below a real profitable, sustainable level, no matter how the city of Bend has grown, because of the declining customer base for what I sell, and the increased retail competition.
Still, all in all, I'm not anti-growth. I'm anti-stupid growth, anti-rude newcomers.
When I started this blog, all I saw was that they were building way too many houses. That's it. It seemed an obvious bubble. All the credit stuff has emerged since then, but hasn't changed the fundamental observation. I've shifted, somewhat, to more concern over the retail bubble.
As far as the Bulletin is concerned; it is a basically conservative paper which derives it's income from advertising. Of course it's pro-growth, pro-business. I wouldn't expect it to be any different. The Source has positioned itself as the 'alternative' weekly, with more new-agey, youthy tack, but it also benefits from the growth of Bend, and especially the growth of 'culture.'
I believe both papers think they working for the public good. The Source believes that closing the downtown streets for Festivals is a good thing. I don't.
I don't believe developers are inherently evil; but they certainly have shown themselves to lack taste and class, and not to be particularly bright in their planning. The old-timers, such as Hollern and Bauhofer, seem to have a bit more perspective, is all. I don't personally care for golf courses and gated communities.
I don't believe there is any conspiracy; hell, I don't think all these guys are that smart or smooth. I believe that money protects money. Birds of a feather flock together. Power corrupts. Don't need no evil planning for greed and stupidity and short-sighted to overwhelm our little town, creating a superficial and over-blown culture that may just implode.
And I'm ambivalent about the implosion, because I know that the innocents may get taken down along with the guilty.
The best we can hope for, right now, is some kind of soft landing; which is only going to happen if Bend truly is the unique baby-boomer magnet we tend to think it is. I'm lowering my estimates of that yet again. I think an 80's style recession has jumped from the 10% I was predicting earlier this year, to a 30%. I think the changes we'll escape without major damage has dropped from 20% to 10%. And it will be sheer luck.
Mostly, we'll muddle through. There is so much froth going on, that it may still be bubbling when a recovery begins. The commercial boom is going to cause some long-term problems, I believe, but it may just pull us through the worst of the housing bust.
I'm planning for lower sales. And watching it all with trepidation and awe.
Oh, I left out the city government. I think it was overwhelmed by the growth. We fired a competent city manager just when we needed him most, and for whatever reasons, the two city managers that followed didn't work out. They've made some bone-headed decisions, and there seems to be a snarled up mess in the bureaucracy.
The city council? Well, why would anyone run for such a thankless job? Nobless Oblige? Ego? To make connections? All of these motivations could lead to some pretty awful decision making. But we have no alternative, and paying them a living wage would just open up the process to other -- maybe worse -- problems.
I consider myself the outsider observer, for what it's worth. I don't have any inside knowledge. Just the viewpoint of a native Bendite who has run a business in Downtown Bend for the last 28 years. And who enjoys writing.