Retail has a logic and a momentum of it's own.
I read once that the Japanese were horrified by the failure rate in Silicon Valley. But out of that creative destruction emerged a few cutting edge companies that the Japanese couldn't have incubated themselves. (Though they are pretty good at refining the process.)
I figure sports cards, for instance, became an unprofitable business a good 15 years ago. But there was always some old semi-retired guy willing to try, always some amoral 20-something who tried to become the Crazy Eddie of the internet. And they kept just enough of the card companies around for me to still make a bit of money, and 15 years later cards as a legitimate part of my mix.
To me, the housing bubble was a much more dangerous event. Houses went up in price too high, and too fast. And fundamentally, too many houses were built.
But retail is different. Sure, almost all these new places are going fail. Most of the old places have already failed. But they leave a beautiful corpse. They create excitement and traffic flow and interest. Restaurants, for instance, have always had a horrible failure rate, but that hasn't kept them from popping up on an endless cycle of renewal. Money is churned. Out of the wreckage will emerge a few winners, and a few survivors.
Sure, we could have some boarded up windows downtown, but I doubt it. And if we do, the boarded up buildings will be much nicer!
I read once that the Japanese were horrified by the failure rate in Silicon Valley. But out of that creative destruction emerged a few cutting edge companies that the Japanese couldn't have incubated themselves. (Though they are pretty good at refining the process.)
I figure sports cards, for instance, became an unprofitable business a good 15 years ago. But there was always some old semi-retired guy willing to try, always some amoral 20-something who tried to become the Crazy Eddie of the internet. And they kept just enough of the card companies around for me to still make a bit of money, and 15 years later cards as a legitimate part of my mix.
To me, the housing bubble was a much more dangerous event. Houses went up in price too high, and too fast. And fundamentally, too many houses were built.
But retail is different. Sure, almost all these new places are going fail. Most of the old places have already failed. But they leave a beautiful corpse. They create excitement and traffic flow and interest. Restaurants, for instance, have always had a horrible failure rate, but that hasn't kept them from popping up on an endless cycle of renewal. Money is churned. Out of the wreckage will emerge a few winners, and a few survivors.
Sure, we could have some boarded up windows downtown, but I doubt it. And if we do, the boarded up buildings will be much nicer!