I wanted to take a step back from the news headlines and the bubble bloggers and try to logic out what I think is going to happen here in Bend.

The liquidity crisis, while perhaps the mechanism that pops the bubble, is to some extent beyond the point. That is, whatever the Fed does to stop bank runs and reassure the stock market isn't going to change the housing bubble.

Here's what I really think: If the most optimistic real estate agents were right, and we have an endless flow of well-heeled baby boomers and yuppies who want to live in Bend, we STILL had a bubble. We STILL had too many houses to absorb.

Too frakkin many houses, which had risen too high, too fast in price. Never mind the Fed, the housing market in Florida, or the stock market.

Bend built too many domiciles.