Did anyone read the article in Saturday's Bulletin about "Independent Reading" (aka indy bookstores?) This was one of the limbo's I couldn't talk about. Pegasus is covered about 2/3rds into the article for about half a column. But I got interviewed for fifteen minutes, and about 30 seconds makes it into the paper and I never know which 30 seconds. David Jasper has always treated me fairly, I just didn't know what the slant of the article was.
I was pleased that I got the mention of the 'convenient' parking garage (no, really, it IS convenient...) which counteracted just a little the comment by Tina Davis that downtown is hard to get to.
What was most noticeable to me is that both existing bookstores really didn't try to hide how brutally hard it is to run a indy bookstore. And that Eugene, a town over twice the size of Bend, and a big university town at that, had only two bookstores. I tried to put a real positive spin on my comments, but I also said, it's an "uphill battle...." Welcome, Camalli Book Co.
Also interesting, and something I didn't know, was yet a third indy on the way at the Delaware Market building, Between the Covers, also selling candy. (It may be, the books will be the draw and the candy and food will make the money?)
I've been expecting this, because of the nature of the people moving here, and the nature of the types of businesses they want to open. Existing niche fillers hasn't stopped people from opening umpteen clothing stores on Minnesota Avenue.
Also got a kick out of the east side/wide side article. Somehow, I just can't see how Northwest Crossing or further out subdivisions are any more pedestrian friendly than the east side, at least as far as East 12th. All these neighborhoods are maybe 15 minutes from downtown. Indeed, I think it would take much longer for most of the neighborhoods past about West 8th street of so. Is this housing equivalent of name-brand jeans? I still think its pretty ridiculous.
As a lifelong resident of Bend, I can tell you there was NO bonus to living on the Westside, except the river and the hills, until this new wave of residents came to town. Perhaps, the opposite. In other words, I think it's all in your heads.
Walker? Come one. Most people drive, whether it's from the East or the West. But I think the East side neighborhoods, as long as you stay off of Highway 20, are just as walkable. The lack of through-fares? I don't see how that is a hindrance. The lack of neighborhood shopping? There is quite a bit, actually, though maybe not as much as the westside. But then, the westside to me still has to prove it can sustain that growth.
And finally, the credit crunch. What I'd foreseen was a bursting housing bubble. I didn't know what the mechanics of it would be. I purely looked at the curve and thought it wasn't sustainable, and looked at the underlying conditions (no real industry, no I-5, no university, etc) and wondered what people were going to do, and I looked at the fact that people have to sell their houses elsewhere to move here so if prices retreated, we'd be affected too.
What I personally didn't see was the way credit would dry up. But now that that is apparent, it is very clear to me that commercial credit is bound to dry up also, and that building more retail and office not only isn't going to save the local market but may exacerbate it.
I had (totally made up odds) a guess that we'd breeze through a downturn at 10%, that we'd crash depression sized at about 10%; and that we'd do somewhere in-between (with us doing better at higher odds than us doing worse) at 80%. I'd revise that to, 5% we'll breeze through, 25% that we are in for a local depression, and 70% in-between, with us doing worse at higher odds than us doing better.
For what it's worth.
I was pleased that I got the mention of the 'convenient' parking garage (no, really, it IS convenient...) which counteracted just a little the comment by Tina Davis that downtown is hard to get to.
What was most noticeable to me is that both existing bookstores really didn't try to hide how brutally hard it is to run a indy bookstore. And that Eugene, a town over twice the size of Bend, and a big university town at that, had only two bookstores. I tried to put a real positive spin on my comments, but I also said, it's an "uphill battle...." Welcome, Camalli Book Co.
Also interesting, and something I didn't know, was yet a third indy on the way at the Delaware Market building, Between the Covers, also selling candy. (It may be, the books will be the draw and the candy and food will make the money?)
I've been expecting this, because of the nature of the people moving here, and the nature of the types of businesses they want to open. Existing niche fillers hasn't stopped people from opening umpteen clothing stores on Minnesota Avenue.
Also got a kick out of the east side/wide side article. Somehow, I just can't see how Northwest Crossing or further out subdivisions are any more pedestrian friendly than the east side, at least as far as East 12th. All these neighborhoods are maybe 15 minutes from downtown. Indeed, I think it would take much longer for most of the neighborhoods past about West 8th street of so. Is this housing equivalent of name-brand jeans? I still think its pretty ridiculous.
As a lifelong resident of Bend, I can tell you there was NO bonus to living on the Westside, except the river and the hills, until this new wave of residents came to town. Perhaps, the opposite. In other words, I think it's all in your heads.
Walker? Come one. Most people drive, whether it's from the East or the West. But I think the East side neighborhoods, as long as you stay off of Highway 20, are just as walkable. The lack of through-fares? I don't see how that is a hindrance. The lack of neighborhood shopping? There is quite a bit, actually, though maybe not as much as the westside. But then, the westside to me still has to prove it can sustain that growth.
And finally, the credit crunch. What I'd foreseen was a bursting housing bubble. I didn't know what the mechanics of it would be. I purely looked at the curve and thought it wasn't sustainable, and looked at the underlying conditions (no real industry, no I-5, no university, etc) and wondered what people were going to do, and I looked at the fact that people have to sell their houses elsewhere to move here so if prices retreated, we'd be affected too.
What I personally didn't see was the way credit would dry up. But now that that is apparent, it is very clear to me that commercial credit is bound to dry up also, and that building more retail and office not only isn't going to save the local market but may exacerbate it.
I had (totally made up odds) a guess that we'd breeze through a downturn at 10%, that we'd crash depression sized at about 10%; and that we'd do somewhere in-between (with us doing better at higher odds than us doing worse) at 80%. I'd revise that to, 5% we'll breeze through, 25% that we are in for a local depression, and 70% in-between, with us doing worse at higher odds than us doing better.
For what it's worth.